Late-stage venture returns follow a power law — but unlike seed stage, the law of large numbers works here. This simulator runs 10,000 Monte Carlo paths — calibrated to PitchBook Q3 2024 and Othman (2019) — so you can see exactly how pool size and market stress reshape your expected return and the probability of a loss.
At seed stage, diversification raises both your expected return and reduces downside — a powerful dual effect that Koh & Othman (2020) confirm empirically across 10,665 real LP portfolios on AngelList. At Series C/D, the distribution has normalised (α > 3). The mean return is flat with pool size — adding more companies does not raise your expected return.
What you get instead is something equally valuable: dramatic variance reduction. At 50 names, your probability of losing money is under 0.1% in a normal market. Your 5th-percentile floor rises from 0× (single name) to ~1.34×. The range of outcomes tightens. Your outcome becomes more predictable. Watch the flat mean line in the pool-size chart to see this in action.
This dashboard simulates 10,000 possible ~4-year futures for a fund holding the number of late-stage companies you choose, drawing each company's outcome from a power-law distribution calibrated to late-stage venture data (Othman, 2019; PitchBook Q3 2024; Koh & Othman, 2020).
Adjust the sliders and hit Run simulation. The partial-loss slider is the most interesting: set it to 30% and watch the loss-probability curve shift — that is the post-2022 stressed environment, where 70% of Series D+ exits returned less than 1×. The pool structure cuts through it.
Each point is the result of 500 simulated outcomes at that pool size. Watch the flat mean line — at α > 3, diversification compresses variance without raising expected return. The 5th-percentile floor rises; the 95th percentile compresses toward the mean. This is the late-stage power law at work.
Mean is flat with pool size at α > 3 — diversification reduces variance, not return.
At any given failure rate and α, how often does a fund of n late-stage companies return less than 1× invested capital? Even a modest number of names dramatically cuts the chance of a loss. Toggle the partial-loss slider to see the post-2022 stressed regime.
Each simulation traces one possible ~4-year fund outcome. The dark teal band shows where the middle 50% of outcomes land; the lighter band shows the middle 90%. The faint lines are 30 individual sample paths. Anything below the dashed line is a losing fund.
For a single typical simulation, this shows where the fund's value comes from over time. At the late stage you will see far fewer breakout (≥10×) outcomes and far more moderate (1–3×) contributors — this is the late-stage power law behaving predictably, not disappointingly.
Complete distribution of the 10,000-path simulation. Percentiles describe where outcomes fall in the distribution; probabilities describe how often the fund clears specific return thresholds.
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Hypothetical and illustrative. The figures shown are simulated, not actual returns of any account, fund, or investor. No representation is made that any investor has achieved or will achieve results similar to those shown. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations: it is prepared with the benefit of hindsight, does not involve real capital at risk, and may not reflect the impact of material economic and market factors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Model parameters are calibrated to PitchBook Q3 2024 Series D+ data and Othman (2019). The historical return distribution of the late-stage venture asset class is not a guarantee that future returns will follow the same distribution.
Model limitations. The simulation assumes equal-weighted holdings, independent outcomes across companies, no correlation between exits, no fees, no carried interest, no taxes, and no transaction costs. Net returns to an investor would be lower — potentially materially — after fees, expenses, carry, and taxes.
Risk of loss; illiquidity. Investments in private companies involve a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss of capital. Private securities are illiquid and may not be readily transferable.
New product; no operating history. The Exceptional Company Liquidity Fund is a new product with no operating history. Structure and terms remain subject to change, and certain features (collateralized borrowing, secondary purchases, and §351 conversions)† depend on regulatory, tax, and counterparty arrangements still being finalised.
Not an offer; not advice. This dashboard is for informational and illustrative purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or interest in any fund, and is not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice.